Quips, Dragons, Polls and Voters

May 22, 2013 by Haven

“Your base” means “the people who are with you when you are wrong” according to CNN Senior Political Analyst, William Schneider, who also serves as Senior Fellow and Resident Scholar at Third Way, a Washington think tank. He describes his real job as telling people when crises become real.

I heard him speak at a lunch four scandals ago when the hot button issue du jour was the defeat of relatively mild gun control legislation. Remember back in the political dark ages when 90% of Americans supported background checks but the bill did not pass? According to Schneider it is not “how many people care,” it is “how much they care.” His advice to those who oppose groups like the NRA and AARP: “form your own group to oppose them.”

Watch for potentially the same result for the same reason on immigration and don’t expect polls to predict it because they do a poor job of measuring intensity. The Tea Party anti-amnesty zealots could splinter the Republican Party.

William Schneider gives good quip and here are some of the best ones he shared with us.

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UKIP Update

May 20, 2013 by Haven

About six months ago we had a guest post called Leaving the Tories and Throwing In with UKIP — the United Kingdom Independence Party.

Since then, the David Cameron (Tory) Nick Clegg (Liberal Democrat) coalition has faced more than a spot of bother in trying to run the UK with differing agendas. The “Lib Dems” are dwindling fast and the Tories have lost notable bi-elections and many seats in local contests.

Scotland might still want out and economic recovery is slow. This is not a happy time to be a politician in power.

Are there lessons to be learned in America?

UKIP is pejoratively considered a racist party because of its hard stance on immigration and borders. Libertarians identify with its strong anti-Europe views and those who like a bit of humor with their politics adore Nigel Farage, a UKIP MEP (Member of European Parliament) who wastes few opportunities to savage the excesses of his colleagues in open session and on YouTube.

Thrumpton, our UK correspondent (and UKIP supporter),  updates his original story.

This issue is about more than EU and immigration now. The public debate has been widened considerably. It’s about useless politicians [Farage calls them ‘fresh-faced schoolboys who’ve never had a proper job’] wasting our time and money and opportunities.

It’s about Cameron thinking he is being clever by promising a 2017 referendum on remaining in the E.U. if he is re-elected. He wont be. It’s about politicians not listening to voters. It’s about a crisis of leadership in the Tory party, and very weak alternatives in Labour or “Lib Dems.” It’s about finding something to focus frustrations upon [EU] after 5 economically hard years.

The Brits will leave Europe whether that is a good or bad thing. And I more than half expect a leadership crisis at any moment. If I looked at the news tape and it said ‘Cameron – vote of no confidence tonight’ I would not be in the least surprised.

Anything sound familiar?

 

 

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America The Business Plan

May 18, 2013 by Haven

Imagine actually having a business plan for America instead of a series of wedge issues designed solely to make your party look better than the other. True, this would require elected officials actually to care about doing their jobs rather than solely about themselves and their party, but we can dream can’t we?

Where would you begin to formulate such a plan?

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Scandals and Sub-Scandals

May 14, 2013 by Haven

The Administration is having a bad week. There are at least four “scandals” ranking in importance from “politics as usual” to impeachable offenses depending upon the political persuasion of whomever is expressing an opinion.

Test your political prognostication skills by deciding which you think will turn out to be the most important and add your reasons. Extra credit for ranking them in the correct order, whatever that turns out to be.

Here are more or less neutral descriptions of the events from which to choose described in the form of the potential scandal rather than the event itself.

A. The killing of four Americans including Ambassador Christopher Stevens in Benghazi, Libya on September 11, 2012 and not trying to rescue them.

B. Efforts made between September 11, 2012 and the November election to conceal the truth of what happened in Benghazi from voters.

C. Efforts made by the Internal Revenue Service to delay approvals for politically related conservative groups before the November election.

D. The Department of Justice obtaining telephone records of reporters from the Associated Press for the purpose of identifying government leakers.

You can stop reading now and submit your own answer after which you can continue to see my assessment.

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Risk Reward

May 10, 2013 by Haven

With that as the title, I can hear the sound of delete keys firmly struck by my three children, who heard the words endlessly while growing up. For best effect, audible eye rolling and death rattle sighing must always accompany proper “delete-key-striking”.

In their cases the tradeoff always related to their own decisions, their own risks and their own rewards. We never had to discuss decisions made by them or others, risks borne by them or others, or rewards enjoyed by them or others. Nor did we discuss concealing those risks to preclude the possibility of good decision-making if decisions were even considered.

Those questions are raised in the five stories that caught my eye today. Each is excerpted below with a link and a comment or question. Italicized words are mine.

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Benghazi: Guest Post by Stan Hatch

May 8, 2013 by Haven

With the Benghazi investigation starting, we are forced to think about it again.

Was Benghazi a cover up?  It would not be the first time in presidential history.  Look at Eisenhower’s denial of the U-2 flights over Russia.  He planned them.  Or Kennedy’s involvement in the Bay of Pigs.  He approved it.   Remember the Contra affair. Reagan was ultimately responsible.  The US is not alone in this. The Russians denied shooting down the Korean airliner traveling from Alaska to Japan that strayed into Russian air space.    The Russians denied there were missiles in Cuba.  The Cold War is full of denials.

Other embassies have been attacked with little we could do about it.  Tehran in 1979.  Beirut in 1983.  Our military bases and ships have been attacked.  The list goes on.  What makes Benghazi different is, if  there was a deliberate cover-up,  it was done for the sole purpose of winning a national election.  The American public deserves better.

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Thoughtful Disagreement

May 6, 2013 by Haven

Last week, Peter Wallison got me thinking about narrative and, as so often happens, the idea is now turning up everywhere.

Today, Jason Zweig wrote about two of the world’s most successful investors challenging their own narratives in his Wall Street Journal column.

Would the Democratic and Republican parties — and especially their followers — do well to consider challenging their own narratives?

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